Strategic Perspectives

By:
Troy J. Bouffard,
Dr. P. Whitney Lackenbauer
Outlet:
NAADSN Date:
30 March, 2021
                                    
                                    Troy J. Bouffard,
Dr. P. Whitney Lackenbauer
Outlet:
NAADSN Date:
30 March, 2021
In this Strategic Perspectives, we consider areas of Russian Arctic national priority,
                                       contextualize the latest strategic documents, and provide perspectives on current
                                       and near-term opportunities for Russia with respect to Arctic strategic policies and
                                       behavior. The three key policy documents in Russia's updated plan for the Arctic Zone
                                       of the Russian Federation (AZRF) that, when read together, provide essential insights
                                       into Russia’s broader Arctic strategy. On this basis, we anticipate how Russia is
                                       likely to seize opportunities to highlight its Arctic developments and priorities
                                       in carefully crafted language during its 2021-23 chairmanship of the Arctic Council,
                                       with a goal of expanding and enhancing its self-defined position in the Circumpolar
                                       North. It has set the major pieces in place to pursue a legitimizing campaign, and
                                       the world can expect clear, consistent themes and messaging that emphasize the Arctic’s
                                       importance for Russia – and the centrality of Russia in regional affairs. Russia will
                                       likely link issues that are a normal part of Arctic Council business with ancillary
                                       activities to promote its national security priorities. This is part of an overarching
                                       strategy that does not seek to revise Arctic governance structures or undermine regional
                                       peace but represents Russia’s strategic ‘center of gravity’ for the Arctic, designed
                                       to showcase the importance of its northern priorities and interests. We recommend
                                       that stakeholder competitors continue to refine their understanding of Russia’s ambitions
                                       under these circumstances and further develop potential responses as needed. In so
                                       doing, Western nations can better manage Russia’s strategic narrative goals that seek
                                       to leverage its comparative advantage as the largest Arctic actor and the primary
                                       host of the Arctic Council for two years.
                                    
                                     
				
